Bobby Lights the Lamp in the 118th

Bobby Cantwell has issued a strong strike at his opponent for her latest campaign commercial, which the ad according to Cantwell displays British medals not U.S.

A service veteran more than likely noticed it during an airing of the commercial and alerted the Cantwell campaign of the alleged mistake.

From the press release.

“Mrs. Russell doesn’t get it that these medals are not just interchangeable campaign props – they represent the love, devotion and courage that our veterans – America’s real heroes – have shown for our great country,” said Kramer.

118th Assembly Debate

There was high expectation and talk that debating Addie Jenne Russell's would be her strength and Bobby Cantwell's weakness, neither was proven true last night at the debate held at the Northside Improvement League and hosted American Association of University Women.

Both candidates addressed the issues with cursory answers and Addie Jenne Russell even ventured well beyond local and state issues a couple of times with her answers and began talking about foreign oil issues and buying American made products not exactly answers that would rivet a voter to pull her lever for a State Assembly representative.

Write in candidate Donald Lucas of the Waddington / Massena area provided the levity for the evening by being very candid and stating he lost his speech for his opening remarks and that he would most likely agree with both of the candidates and when asked about top three budget cuts he replied "I can't think of three."

Issues covered included budget cuts, school aid, jobs and lower taxes.

It was interesting to note Addie Jenne Russell's response to the state budget woes and her suggestion of cuts included consolidation of local government and "quasi-government" agencies and she seemed to downplay or flippant about the budget crisis by saying there have been worse times than we currently are in. Addie mentioned in one form or another her version of income redistribution which is toeing the Assembly majority line of raising taxes on higher income individuals.
 
Bobby Cantwell held his own tonight and stuck to his campaign message that government is spending and taxing too much and cannot tax their way out of problems. He offered up consolidation of state agencies such as the Thruway Authority, DOT and Canal Corporation as an example of reducing government cost.

There was no winner of the debate, which may even be a victory for Cantwell.

Tax Cap vs. Circuit Breaker in the 118th Assembly Race

The tax cap and circuit breaker philosphies have been debated in the 48th Senate district race and now the issue is finally rearing its head in the 118th Assembly race.

Cantwell supports the tax cap, while Addie Jenne Russell favors the circuit breaker plan. Cantwell is correct, the tax cap works and the circuit breaker plan does not work for Northern New York residents.

The Cantwell press release would have been posted here, but frankly it is a convoluted piece of crap. (Note to Bobby, your news person needs to be fired)

Here is a rule of thumb. If you pay around $25 in taxes per $1000 of assessed value, then the assessed value of your home has to greater than twice your income before you receive a benefit.

But remember, you only receive 25% credit on anything above the circuit breaker amount which is likely less than your STAR benefit.  

Here is the simple math example;

A person living in a home assessed for $60,000 that has a total tax rate around $26.00 per $1000 value, pays approximately $1560.00 in taxes, if that person earns more than $31,200 they are not eligible for a benefit.

Candidates Defined Project

The in-depth interviews that were conducted on an informal basis with the candidates are available for viewing. The interviews focused on allowing the voters to get to know the candidates a little better; beyond the TV commercials, the radio, or direct mail, beyond characterizations of what type of people these candidates are, here they speak for themselves.

Thank You to Dave Renzi and Addie Jenne Russell for participating. Bobby Cantwell or Darrel Aubertine did not participate. Danger Democrat and Political IV sponsored the interviews.

Here are the interview, they are long, so set aside time. Also, they will be left posted on the side.


Addie Jenne Russell 

David Renzi

Dates To Note

Meet and Greet for David Renzi
Carthage Elks Lodge
Tonight 5:30

48th Senate District Candidates Debate
David Renzi and Darrel Aubertine
GS Steamers Restaurant
70 East First St., Oswego
Oct 2nd

Candidates for the 118th Assembly District will debate
Bobby Cantwell - Addie Jenne Russell
Clarkson University
October 22nd

No Golisano in 118th

Three time failed Gubernatorial candidate Tom Golisano is keeping his grubby paws out of the 118th Assembly race between Cantwell and Russell. No endorsement of either candidate.

That will make it one step closer to a cleaner race than the 48th Senate race where Golisano is trying to cast his shadow over the North Country.

Golisano, who is owner of the Buffalo Sabres, can stick to hockey and stay the puck out of the North Country political races, the North Country understands its own values we don't need a billionaire telling what is best for us. 

Read more here and the spreadsheet on all his meddling is here

And Yet More on the Addie Tax Site and Their Work

This is more work from the mysterious new site "The Addie Tax"

Interesting Website

No idea who developed this site or where it came from, this is just a link as it was sent to P-IV. There is no responsibility of P-IV for this site.

Update: Contrary to Danger Democrat's claim, no one knows who produced this site and it cannot be linked to Cantwell. Further research of the site shows the domain registration has been blocked.    

Click Here: The Addie Tax

  

Noise From Candidates In The 118th

The noise from the candidates in the 118th Assembly District has not even reached a level on the sound meter. This is like watching a Papal conclave and seeing black smoke from the cigar smoke filled back rooms to mean "no candidate yet" and everyone still waiting for the white smoke and ringing of the bells.

It appears John Burns and Greg Pacquin are engaging on the Democrats side while Patty Ritchie and Phil Reed have encountered each other's desire on the GOP side.

The populace of the 118th anxiously await a signal of white smoke from either side, a gesture meaning they have their candidate.

Assemble The Candidates In The 118th

The 118th Assembly district is without a representative in Albany and to date it is without an announced candidate also, but that may change. Those who are keeping a scorecard of potential political match ups can add back into the column of potential candidates, Patty Richie.

Richie, who earlier this year said she was not interested in running for the Assembly in a special election but is said to be very interested in running in a general election. A current St. Lawrence County Clerk, Richie has very high approval ratings from the public in that county and she remains well known in Jefferson County from her initial race against Darrel Aubertine in 2002 which she only lost by a small margin.

Patty Richie is widely thought to have the best chance to win the 118th Assembly district for the GOP and those thoughts are supported by polling data according to sources. With the start of May tomorrow, it is time for candidates to begin organizing and announcing.

The Political Alley

Like it or not, the path to the 118th Assembly seat for a Republican leads through Watertown and this holds especially true for a Jefferson County Republican; they should be prepared.

The St. Lawrence County portion of the 118th Assembly District consistently has more votes cast than Jefferson County in each Aubertine victory, over Ritchie, Gray and one unopposed contest. Further breakdown of the St. Lawrence County votes shows 50% of that county's total comes from the Democratic strong holds of Massena, Canton, Potsdam, and Ogdensburg, hence that being labeled a "safe seat" for Aubertine and possibly for any Democrat.

A good sound St. Lawrence County Republican, such as Ritchie, can possibly neutralize or even eliminate that threat in St. Lawrence County, but then must do battle in the City of Watertown in order to win. A city of Watertown victory is problematic for the St. Lawrence County Republican if they are running against a Jefferson County Democrat.

A Jefferson County Republican in the same scenario will likely lose to a Democrat from either county in the St. Lawrence portion of the district, therefore, the Jefferson County Republican must win big in Jefferson County at least 60% to 40% and that can only be done by winning the City of Watertown.

A Jefferson County Republican must win in this county by a substantial margin in any given scenario, and that cannot be done without Watertown. The candidates favored by parties should be chosen wisely, parochialism will be a big part of this race as it has been in the past.

Jeff Graham, in spite of the State Independence Party ripping from him the responsibility of giving the line to a candidate, is still in play as Mayor. Mayor Graham needs to make certain the city's interests are being considered by a candidate and commitments are made by a candidate to assist the city. His endorsement and efforts to support a candidate will loom large over the results.

A candidate for the 118th Assembly seat will be met in the political alley called the City of Watertown by those looking out for the city's interest; they should be prepared to earn the support.

"Least Influential Office"

"One of the least influential offices in state government — a Republican seat in the Assembly" the Buffalo News reported the other day.

Does that mean Republican candidates should fold up their tents and go home, of course not? If everyone possessed that sort of irresponsible attitude toward elections, our government would be more of a run away train wreck than it is currently. Jim Tedisco, minority leader of the Assembly has done a fine job leading that conference of Republicans and has been one of the best leaders the Republican Minority has seen in the last several years. An effective leader furthering their agenda Tedisco was one of the first to call it as he saw it with Spitzer in Albany, being the recipient of the "f'n steamroller" remark.

Down deep what this really means is the responsibility for financing a GOP campaign is primarily the candidate's for an Assembly race. The majority party of either the Assembly or Senate raises more money and therefore, they have more to spend on defending their seats or going after seats, especially if seats are put "in play" like the 118th district or the 122nd seat, if Dede ran for Senate. You can safely guarantee the Democratic candidate will have more money to spend on a race than a Republican Assembly candidate who will have to raise or spend more of their own money.

Likewise, the Republicans will have more money available to spend going after the 48th Senate seat compared to the Democrats whose contribution will be considerably diluted during a general election as opposed to the past special election.

What kind of money will a Republican be looking to spend to win the 118th Assembly? If it is anything like the 142nd district, a dominant GOP contender there is willing to commit $250,000 to $500,000 for a primary and general election while the defending GOP member is raising $100,000.

A Republican candidate will have to buck up big time, the Democrats will be willing to spend that much here, and more, especially with the State Democratic Party Chair June O'Neill, she will not want to lose in her own backyard.

What Is The Plan

Since GOP State Chair Joseph Mondello threw the baby out with the bath water the other day, with his remark about Barclay, perhaps a little conjecture on what is ahead.

You can't help believe the other possible candidate is Dede Scozzafava and may be the chairman's choice for Senate candidate in the 48th district. This would leave two Assembly district races in the North Country without a sitting incumbent, the 118th and 122nd.

The decision to run for these seats has to be made by the interested people in relatively short order, probably around mid May is about the right time.

There has been a lot of speculation as to who will run in the 118th, but the 122nd, which is the poor stepchild district, has been under the radar. Who is out there for the 122nd seat?

Who can the GOP feature in this race:
Dave Renzi, Town of Watertown
TJ Fayle, Lowville
Don Peck, Governeur
Kent Burto, West Carthage
Rick Lucas, Montague
Mike Behling, Adams

Who can the Democrats feature:
Sallie Brothers, Norfolk
Wayne McIlroy, Carthage
Joel Bartlett, Town of Watertown
Karl Williams, Henderson
Sean Hennessey, Black River
Bruce Krug, Port Leyden

It Was Truly An April Fool's Day

State Budget Deadline 11:59 PM March 31 Missed
Special Election Deadline 11:59 PM March 31 Missed

Budget

The deadline for the New York State Budget has come and gone. Another late state budget and another year of excuses from people who lack the skill of time management. You will hear; it is better to get it right, then to just accept any budget deal. Just a moment here, you have had the budget proposal since January 22nd.

And the getting it right part; the budget proposal increases state funds spending by well over the inflation rate, it increases debt and leaves out year budget gaps of over 7 billion dollars. It leaves open prisons that will require $30 million in upkeep, yet it fails to address pay raises for judges who have worked since 1999 without one and all because the raises are being held hostage by Speaker Silver.

The process needs to be reformed, it needs to be more open and transparent through a greater use of budget committees. The current centralized power structure needs to be abandon for term limits on the positions of Senate Majority Leader and Assembly Speaker. Also, lobbyist should be restricted from lobbying 30 days before the budget deadline, that gives them 11 months to make their cases to lawmakers and a 1 month resting period while the legislators get their work done.


Special Election

The deadline for calling a special election in the 118th Assembly district has come and gone as well.

No one to represent people of that district in Albany until January 1, 2009.
No one to hear the issues that constituents need to be working with a representative on.
No one to intercede for constituents on their behalf to ensure proper action and responses.
No one for local governments to work with in order to move their initiatives along.
No one to interact with state government and its agencies on our behalf

The 118th Assembly District is an orphan child in the New York State Assembly.

So, let the primary announcements begin, both parties should guard against any deals to close the process, open primaries, it is up to the candidate and the parties to rally people behind the person after the primary.