"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Friday, April 18, 2008

The Political Alley

Like it or not, the path to the 118th Assembly seat for a Republican leads through Watertown and this holds especially true for a Jefferson County Republican; they should be prepared.

The St. Lawrence County portion of the 118th Assembly District consistently has more votes cast than
Jefferson County in each Aubertine victory, over Ritchie, Gray and one unopposed contest. Further breakdown of the St. Lawrence County votes shows 50% of that county's total comes from the Democratic strong holds of Massena, Canton, Potsdam, and Ogdensburg, hence that being labeled a "safe seat" for Aubertine and possibly for any Democrat.

A good sound St. Lawrence County Republican, such as Ritchie, can possibly neutralize or even eliminate that threat in St. Lawrence County, but then must do battle in the City of Watertown in order to win. A city of
Watertown victory is problematic for the St. Lawrence County Republican if they are running against a Jefferson County Democrat.

A Jefferson County Republican in the same scenario will likely lose to a Democrat from either county in the St. Lawrence portion of the district, therefore, the Jefferson County Republican must win big in
Jefferson County at least 60% to 40% and that can only be done by winning the City of Watertown.

A Jefferson County Republican must win in this county by a substantial margin in any given scenario, and that cannot be done without Watertown. The candidates favored by parties should be chosen wisely, parochialism will be a big part of this race as it has been in the past.

Jeff Graham, in spite of the State Independence Party ripping from him the responsibility of giving the line to a candidate, is still in play as Mayor. Mayor Graham needs to make certain the city's interests are being considered by a candidate and commitments are made by a candidate to assist the city. His endorsement and efforts to support a candidate will loom large over the results.

A candidate for the 118th Assembly seat will be met in the political alley called the City of Watertown by those looking out for the city's interest; they should be prepared to earn the support.


Anonymous said...

Very well thought-out demographic analysis. What is missing is the fact that both parties in both counties are struggling to find candidates who are willing and qualified to run/serve. A prohibitive cost up-front for polling before any state committees' monies are ponied up, a grueling and possibly nasty campaign, and the political knife fighting that is present in the county committees make most sane people say "No Thanks!"

Anonymous said...

Jeff Graham, come on. The only thing Jeff Graham cares about is getting Jeff Graham a political job. He will only support a candidate that will make him a personal promise.

Anonymous said...

This is Scott sucking up to Jeff Graham. Graham the same guy that sat on the sidelines of the Senate Special after it came out about him trying to get a job.

Live Blogging