"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Monday, April 21, 2008

PA: Clinton by 10, not so fast.


The day before the Pennsylvania primary and the polls are all over the board with Clinton leading in some polls by as much as 10 points. Not so fast though, Obama has run an intelligent campaign and one pollster, Public Policy Polling, says turnout in Delaware Valley is the key factor.

Turnout is everything and Philadelphia is Obama's chance, where he has reportedly registered many new voters.

In the Casey-Rendell gubernatorial primary race Casey lead 57 out of the 67 counties in PA, but Rendell was able to pull off the victory with a massive voter turnout in the Delaware Valley. Obama has a large lead in the Delaware Valley section of the state, as shown in the poll, and if his ground campaign can turnout the vote in that area then he could win the primary.

Negative advertising will also play a factor, a negative campaign has a tendency to suppress voter turnout. Clinton has very high negatives also (reason why GOP wants her to win), and she is driving her negatives higher with her own advertising, negative campaigning becomes a game of attrition. This is likely to cause people to stay home where she needs the turnout.

The bottom line here is that no one will walk away with any great gains in the pledged delegate category. Obama claims victory and possibly the nomination if he wins, and Clinton clings to political life, claiming she is the only one with the ability to win big states, if she wins.

The primary will likely continue its same course after tomorrow with no meaningful change occurring Tuesday in Pennsylvania.

1 comment:

TF said...

Here is my spin.
N. Carolina goes to Obama big.
Pennsylvania goes Clinton pretty big.
And Indiana is the tie breaker.

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