"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

"A" Team for the 118th

The respective parties over the next week or so will be boiling down all the interested people for the special election in the 118th Assembly. There is a lot of interest from a lot of people but only a few really have the starter kit of jewelry it takes to become part of the A team.

The Donkeys can post up a list of applicants but really face it, only a couple can make the dash. Burns and Cobb have potential, with Cobb as their best choice.

John Burns' fleeting chance is that he has run a county wide race in Jefferson County and will likely secure the many union's support in St. Lawrence County. The downside for Burns is that he has difficulty constructing a single thought, not articulate on the issues facing Northern New York and he cannot manage any type of business affairs as he has evidenced in the past.

Tedra Cobb on the other hand is very articulate, thoughtful and understands the issues facing the residents and will generally run well in St Lawrence County. The downside for Cobb is that she will not run well down in Jefferson County.

Thus, the Democrats have a choice and have to weigh their options carefully coupled with a lot of money to run the race.

The elephants have their own list of luminaries for the chance to regain "their" (self proclaimed) seat, they consist of Reed and Ritchie with Ritchie being the best choice.

Reed can be seen as the person to win the seat in Jefferson County but ultimately he can not gain enough votes in Jefferson County to overcome the deficit that he will face from the St. Lawrence County outcome. Democrats will be faithful to their party candidate while Republicans are faithful to a person based on parochial parameters.

St. Lawrence County has typically registered 2000 to 3000 more votes in the Assembly races. Ritchie will keep the votes "at home" in St. Lawrence County better this time than she did in 2002 and she will run as well in Jefferson County or even better than she did in 2002. Therefore, given that she only lost to candidate Aubertine by 1200+ votes, who was running for a year before she began to run, she stands the best chance to win the seat.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ritchie running was the only reason Aubertine one the seat in the first place. Jefferson county also votes only for their perceived local candidate, look at the just concluded special election. Additionally, I saw a debate during the aforementioned election and Ritchie is inarticulate and cannot think on her feet. If it is a Burns/Ritchie race the whole district loses because niether one is articulate enough to get anything done in Albany (it will appear that we are represented by an inarticulate hick)

Anonymous said...

First, Cobb (and her mentor/cohort Pat Turbett) is on the outs with June O'Neill and the St. Lawrence County Dems for her ham-handed dealings with the county Legislature. Second, if memory serves, Ritchie actually lost St. Lawrence County when she ran against Aubertine.

Politicaliv.com said...

Poster #2

Sorry to correct you but Ritchie won St. Lawrence County 9327 to Aubertine 7947.

Aubertine won in Jefferson County 8477 to Ritchie 5871.

Aubertine won by 1226

I believe these numbers are before absentee ballots.

Anonymous said...

Ritchie lost more votes in Jefferson County because of the primary. It is my belief if there was no hurt feelings based on a bruising three way primary she would have beat Aubertine.

Anonymous said...

Ok IV, I stand corrected on the vote tallies from 2002. Poster #1 is absolutely right about "inarticulate hicks" - can you picture either of these two standing in the Well of the Assembly and expressing the feelings of their constituents? In 2002, Ritchie gave the same stump speech over and over in that high pitched, adolescent whine and Burns mumbles like he has a mouthful of marbles. Yikes. I can't vote for either of these two boneheads. BTW, check Friends of Patricia Ritchie with the state BOE. I think she still has debts from the 2002 campaign.

grass roots said...

Patty Ritchie would be the best candidate for the 118th. She is a proven leader and in her short time has accomplished a great deal.She works well with both sides and to the two that think she in inarticulate what have you done in your life other than put people down. Maybe it is because you know SHE IS THE ONE THAT CAN WIN AND GET THE JOB DONE. How much are you being paid to put this on the blog.

Anonymous said...

we cant do better than john burns?

Anonymous said...

Phil Reed "IS" articulate and has been an impressive member of the county legislature. If there isn't a special election, he will beat Ritchie in a primary by virtue of the Republican enrollment edge in Jefferson and should be able to carry enough of an edge from Jefferson to counter any Dem's St. Lawrence county totals as Jefferson seems to support home town candidates at a higher level than St. Lawrence. She beat Aubertine by less than 1,400 votes in spite of the fact that she was a sitting county official.

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