Oddly, this dynamic does not wind up devaluing issues and policies as you expect it might. When radical policies like the biggest expansion of government since FDR can be cloaked in a tableau of hope, change, and history, they are much easier to get through. Good storytelling is the natural ally of those who would like to see bold public policies -- on both sides.
Again and again in American politics, certain themes recur. And certain storylines are more successful than others. I went back and looked at Presidential elections since 1960 -- generally considered to be the birth of modern Presidential politics -- to see which storylines worked and which didn't, and it's not hard to see why Obama's trifecta of youth, change, and hope -- represented here by optimism, is so powerful: they've won every time they've been tried.
Here are the overall themes. I tried to boil down each candidate to a maximum of two main narratives:
| Year | Winner | Narratives | Loser | Narratives |
| 1960 | Kennedy (D) | Youth, optimism | Nixon (R) | Continuity |
| 1964 | Johnson (D) | Continuity, risk | Goldwater (R) | Opposition, integrity |
| 1968 | Nixon (R) | Stability, experience | Humphrey (D) | Continuity |
| 1972 | Nixon (R) | Continuity | McGovern (D) | Opposition |
| 1976 | Carter (D) | Integrity | Ford (R) | Americana |
| 1980 | Reagan (R) | Optimism, change | Carter (D) | Risk |
| 1984 | Reagan (R) | Optimism, continuity | Mondale (D) | Opposition |
| 1988 | Bush (R) | Continuity | Dukakis (D) | Competence, opposition |
| 1992 | Clinton (D) | Change, party reform | Bush (R) | Service, risk |
| 1996 | Clinton (D) | Continuity, optimism | Dole (R) | Service, integrity |
| 2000 | Bush (R) | Integrity, party reform | Gore (D) | Intelligence, continuity |
| 2004 | Bush (R) | Safety, continuity | Kerry (D) | Service, opposition |
| 2008 | Obama (D) | Change, youth | McCain (R) | Service, party reform |
| Theme | Won | Lost | Win % |
| Optimism | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Change | 3 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Youth | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Safety | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Continuity | 6 | 3 | .667 |
| Party reform | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Integrity | 2 | 2 | .500 |
| Risk | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Americana | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Intelligence | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Opposition | 0 | 4 | .000 |
| Service | 0 | 4 | .000 |
5 comments:
where is this reprinted from? after all your recent aching and moaning about class, iv, i think the least you could do is provide a hyperlink to the original source when you cut-and-paste something.
Bloggers, I put all of us on one page. Well, most of us that read these pages. I prolly missed a few that I should have added. Anyway, it's at:
NNY Blogroll which is on Danger Democrat's site, but... no worries. Everyone is invited to use the page and the site.
Also added us a "Radio Talk Show" of sorts. Enjoy!
- Evil
That's a pretty interesting post, IV.
Hermit, did he say it was reprinted? It could have been an independent thought. People are allowed to have 'em.
Try it sometime.
Oooops, in the title.
Theres my ADD kicking in.
If only I could get a check for it.
Too old.
it's been two days since iv made the original post, and still no attribution?
i'm afraid this reveals some rather classic piv hackery. if someone just started reading this blog in the past few days, they might think iv really cares about "class": s/he has recently used that as a launchpad to both laud bush and attack democrats. but the now-evident conclusion is that iv doesn't care a wit about class; it's just the latest bit of fuel for the partisan fire, hypocrisy be damned. i happen to think that when you copy someone else's work, true class would demand that you give credit to the author, and, when posting on the internet, a hyperlink. it's not like iv doesn't value getting hits here. and look, fair enough, maybe iv was in a rush when s/he first posted and forgot to include the link. we all make mistakes. but the omission was pointed out right away, and over 48 hours later there's still nothing! what else is there to conclude?
btw, the original article was written by patrick ruffini and is available here.
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