"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Not All Polls Are Polls

The Hoffman people are touting a couple of polls that show their pol in the lead. The Shepard Palin has spoken and it is time for her flock, who cannot think on their own, to follow along! All the planets are aligned and our savior has arrived!

Wait one minute, before you buy into all the information, read some interesting points about the polls from TMV.
  • The Club for Growth endorsed Hoffman and just last week threw $300,000 into the race on his behalf.

  • The sample size is tiny (300 people).

  • The pollster that Club for Growth is using, Basswood Research — I’m sure does perfectly good work for its clients — but is not that well known** and is therefore not taking too much reputational risk with this poll. (** I’m told that Basswood does in fact do a decent amount of work for Republican candidates like Tom Coburn and Mark Sanford.)

  • The number of undecideds in the poll — 22 percent — is unusual for a poll just eight days out from an election and is higher than what the public polls show.

  • The poll was conducted entirely over the weekend. Although Sunday is a fairly good polling day, Saturdays are not.

  • The narrative that Club for Growth constructs around the poll is that Hoffman is taking votes from Scozzafava, but the poll also shows the Democrat Owens polling quite a bit lower than he does in the public polls. It seems unlikely that Owens voters are defecting to Hoffman. Rather, if Scozzafava’s support is indeed collapsing, I’d expect Owens to be picking up some of that support in addition to Hoffman.

  • The poll was released at a time when the NRCC, which has endorsed Scozzafava, is defending its position by citing the polling evidence, and so the incentive to put out some contrary evidence to alter the inflection of the media narrative is quite high.

  • The poll shows that 59 percent of so-called likely voters have no opinion (or haven’t heard of) Owens, 48 percent have no opinion of Scozzafava, and 56 percent have no opinion of Hoffman.

  • Only 14 percent of the likely voters in this poll are age 40 or under, as compared with about 40 percent in the Research 2000 poll.

  • Previous polls put out by Basswood Research and the Club for Growth in this race featured highly leading question wording, although that does not appear to be the case here.

14 comments:

Dan Francis said...

Like I say, "Polls are only good in Poland."

Polls are carefully and professionally designed for one or more distinct purposes - once the person being polled figures that out, the poll object becomes clear. Their answer may/may not help the pollster.

Most people like giving their opinion on things. Giving an opinion about a candidate is a personal matter and a bit different. It is normally based on the pollee's personal view on select issues, and their likeability towards the
candidate.

Other factors also enter into poll taking -- it is a science that most do no understand.

Polls should always be looked at with a eye of doubt about their purpose.

Anonymous said...

What are you trying to do IV. Rain on liar Doug's parade? How presumptuous of this guy to expect people to vote for him when he can't do the courtesy of talking in a forum to his would be constituents. And how stupid of his supporters to accept that shabby treatment. But hey they don't think much of anything unless it has been okayed by their god, Rush or his prophet, Beck.

Anonymous said...

You are certainly getting desperate, 2:11.

So you're against the Conservative. In your mind he is connected with Hitler, Pol Pot, The Hun, and Global Warming. Perhaps even Dannie's dreaded Foooox Neeeews. We got it.

But we're getting to a point where you have to be FOR somebody. Who are you for? As I politely asked Dan, who are you for and why?

It is a fair question.

Anonymous said...

if HOFFMAN AND OWENS ARE TOO GOOD TO SHOW FOR DEBATES, THEN THE DONT DESERVE TO BE ELECTED ARROGANT BASTARDS

Dan Francis said...

9:15 - apparently you don't or aren't well read... I have said I can support/vote for Dede - my wife, too... she likes Dede for her lib stance on marriage equality and a woman's right to choose - not a man's right to tell her how to choose.

Why aren't you?

Anonymous said...

hmm... Hoffman was a no show at the ncpr debate. this guy isn't ready for primetime.

I was going to vote for Dede but i don't think she can win and am disturbed by the police call incident so I might vote for Owens to prevent hoffman from winning. I think Owens can do something for this district.

Anonymous said...

Not all polls are polls...Especially when you don't like the results.

Anonymous said...

It's ok, Dan. The postings just crossed in the mail. I saw your position on the election. I wish you could bring yourself to say more about the Donkey, but one step at a time.

As far as your wife's views on "marriage equality", I don't really know what marriage equality is. Everyone I know who is married has no equality. But I don't support anything other than men/woman marriages, so I guess you got me. I don't think you should be able to marry multiple partners either, which will no doubt follow soonafter we're gone. As far as abortion, with all respect to your wife, it isn't an issue. The laws are there and the courts aren't going to change things. I would support changes and restrictions on late term abortions, but even that seems to be ok with most of us. Hell, you can slam a newborn in a dumpster and get counseling most of the time, so tell the wife not to worry her pretty little head over things. (That's just my stupid sense of humor again).

Unrelated. These guys who tell us that Hoffman is "not ready for primetime" are confusing me. Maybe we should look at that differently. We've had all these "pols" who were ready for the spotlight, Schumer types, and where has it gotten us? Maybe a guy who doesn't talk as well is what we need. Either way, not being a talker doesn't make me less likely to vote for change, and support Hoffman.

Dan Francis said...

8:03 - don't try to misrepresent my views and my wife if off limits... I only mentioned her in the context of her support for Dede - on woman-to-woman issues - she is off limits to your vile.

Anonymous said...

11:26 PM
How bout man on man issues?

Anonymous said...

Dan takes a gambit from Palin! He says why his wife likes Dede but you cant comment on that. Just like Palin's use of her youngest child. Did Rosie ODonnell get divorced yet?

Anonymous said...

Dannie, there was no "vile" whatsoever involved. All references to anyone's views were presented respectfully. You need to do some serious soul searching. You're acting like a 10 year old.

Anonymous said...

11:57 AM
He is not here,Him and his other little acorn nut buddies have gone to the cematary with shovel in hand (pen and paper) and are gathering votes for the donkey.How much you want to bet a record # of absentee ballots show up in this race? They had it wrapped up till dede dropped out now they gotta scramble to make up lost ground.

Anonymous said...

Government financed ACORN Donkey votes. We financed them. So blame ourselves.

You the voter didn't mind while they were doing it. Your new hand picked Sen Gillibrand still loves 'em. So don't bitch about it now.

Dead people, like Hondurans, deserve a voice in government too.

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