"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Thursday, May 8, 2008

Bye Bye!

Bye Bye is what New Yorker's say each year to their children, neighbors, relatives, friends, and co-workers as New York State continues to lose its inhabitants. The primary reasons are jobs and the economy, which is affected and afflicted by the way New York State is governed.

Therefore, here is where the rubber meets the road for politicians. The continued hemorrhaging of residents from New York State, especially upstate New York, will cost the state representation at the federal level and cost the North Country representation at the state level.

This gets a little tricky here, but the convoluted system of reapportionment is left up to the politicians, which essentially means the Democrats and Republicans will decide and compromise to protect their own seats. This translates into the Assembly Democrats protecting their seats and if the Republicans remain in control of the Senate, they will protect their seats.

How does this effect the North Country?

There is little doubt this will spread the 23rd Congressional district seat out further than it is currently and if Democrats control both the state Assembly and Senate, John McHugh will be a target.

If the winner of the 118th Assembly district is a Democrat, the district is likely to remain fairly well intact, if the winner is a Republican expect that district to be altered enough to push the representative outside the district boundaries or make it more difficult to win re-election, just ask Bob Nortz. This concern should be factored into any Republican candidate's decision.

In the 122nd Assembly the same scenario is likely to occur as in the 118th Assembly district, any changes will favor the Democrats.

The 48th Senate district will change depending upon who has control of the Senate; Democrats will draw the district to favor Aubertine or Republicans will draw it to make it more difficult for him to win re-election.

There is the system, fair and balanced, and if you believe it is truly fair and balanced then there is a bridge for sale in Brooklyn you might like to buy.

The bottom line is Northern New York's representation will take a hit in redistricting and will continue to do so until the elected officials decide to make serious changes in the way government operates New York State.


Anonymous said...

While I agree with your assessment of what could happen to our local political districts and the negative effects of our state's governance, I would like to clarify some of the data shown by your graphic.

It appears that New York is NOT suffering from population loss. The graphic plainly shows that the population of New York GREW by 1.7% from 2000 to 2007. That is well below the national average, certainly, but it is not a loss.

Secondly, what the graphic more clearly demonstrates is a trend of people moving from more rural areas to more urban areas, as shown by the fact that almost all of the counties in the metropolitan New York City area are growing.

The graphic appears impressive with all that red showing population losses, but it is misleading in that most of the red area is in sparsely populated rural New York.

Anonymous said...

Spreading the 23rd? Hah, what a laugh!

No, Kristen Gillabrand will get the eastern half of the District as part of the retooled 20th, likely the remainder of Essex and Clinton, maybe part of Franklin.

Whoever replaces Mike McNulty will get part of the district, likely the rest of Fulton County, Hamilton Count, and part of Frankling and a piece of St. Lawerence Counties.

Mike Arcuri's 24th District seat will likely pick up Madison, the rest of Oneida, and at least part of Lewis, if not all of Lewis County, and maybe part of Oswego.

The 25th, which will likely be won by Dan Maffei this fall with Walsh's retirement, will pick up part of Oswego, and Jefferson County and St. Lawerence County, and with Maffei's fundraising network, he will likely either force McHugh's retirment, in 2012, or McHugh, will decide to retire, and take a maybe state lobbying job, as a federal lobbying job will be out for 2 years, or maybe he will get some other plum DC position.

The 23rd, will be broken up, why, because the state is losing representation in the next census, and why not eliminate a Republican seat in a state controlled by Democrats?

McHugh is toast in 2012.

The one thing that could save the 23rd Congressional District, and representation for Rural New York, and in particular Northern New York, is the election of a Democrat either this fall, or in 2010.

Anonymous said...

Anon #2

If you consider that a good thing then you are delusional.

Agriculture, Military, etc McHugh is very knowledgeable and this area would be less served without him. Much like people will soon realize the difference between Wright and incompetent Aubertine.

RWiley said...

John McHugh may be very knowledgeable, but he is seldom seen or heard within his district and is now ranked #347 in the House Power Rankings, overall, and is #27 in the list of 29 New York State representatives. Mr. Schumer and Ms. Clinton have served this area well, especially in regards to Fort Drum continuance and funding. To Mr. McHugh's credit, a few years back he was listed as one the 50 Most Beautiful People on Capitol Hill.

Congressional Power Rankings

Jim Wright, a fine State Senator, is no longer a factor. He messed up the Republican foothold by betting on a weak replacement and stuck us with a very costly interim election. He left behind a lot of unfinished business and many shocked and angry republican, democratic and independent supporters.

Anonymous said...

No anonymous #3, I as anonymous #2 don't consider the likely demise of the 35d, being split amongst 4 other districts a good thing, which I was I support the only thing that will save it, and allow Northern New York and Rural New York a voice in Congress, and that is the district going from Red to Blue, with a Democrat elected this fall, or in 2010.

Mr. Oot is a knowledgable individual and seems like a man who has a genuine interest in representing the interests of the people of the district, by which I mean, he is engaged enough to be traveling this enormous district regularly and meeting as many people as possible and learning their concerns first hand, unlike the current member of Congress. He would be a good replacement for Mr. McHugh who spends most of his time in Virginia.

The added bonus is that a Democrat elected in the 23rd would mean that Albany, Utica, and Syracuse don't become the deciding factor in regards to who represents the North Country and rural New York after the next census. Rather, Buffalo and Rochester would likely help divide up Western New York's 29th Congressional district, while the 23rd would remain essentially intact.

Anonymous said...

If you think for one second that voting out an eight term incumbent Congressman for Mike Oot is a good thing than you are CRAZY!!!

Everyone benefits from having John McHugh in Washington DC and it's not his fault that he becomes the highest ranking member on the Armed Services Committee - for God's sake he has Fort Drum in his district. I'd hope he'd be on the short list for that position.

Mike Oot is playing off Nancy Pelosi's liberal left wing agenda and will be trounced whole heartily in the fall. It's a sad day when NNY thinks it should be represented by socialist Democrats because they'll help with gas prices. Guess what - they want MORE taxes, not less. Ask Obama, Gov. Paterson or Shelly Silver - NOT TO GAS TAX CUT! They don't live in the real world.

Democrats are destroying America and they will not destroy Upstate NY!!!

Anonymous said...

As the guy who allegedly will be the ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, McHugh is one of the weakest powerbrokers in Congress, hardly what this district needs.

He can't bring home the money that this district needs from Washington, Kristen Gillabrand and Mike Arcuri as freshman members of Congress brought home more than, Mr. I've been in Congress since 1992 and all I did was help to lose not one, but two Air Force Bases for New York, despite the fact that Plattsburgh, in my district was the best base, New Jersey won out, because I wouldn't work with fellow Republican Sherwood Boehlert to save a base in New York, even though one was in my district, and the other was within 5 miles of the border of my district and both bases employed thousands of people in my district.

McHugh is a joke. This is the guy that came up with the idea for the Northeast Dairy Compact, sponsored it, and FAILED to get New York included in it, HURTING NORTH COUNTRY FARMERS. McHugh is not a leader, he is a George Bush yes man who has consistently failed his district to help his party.

RWiley said...

The George Bush Administration along with the Republican 107th and 108th. Congress did damage to this country that will never be repaired. They lied about their reasons for invading Iraq and gave corporations no-bid contracts with no oversight but free access to the budget surplus left by Mr. Clinton.
Enforcement of environmental laws ceased. Their energy policy became nothing more than permission for Big Oil to rape the consumer while Congress let their executives testify without taking an oath. We lost the respect of our world partners as we became the "torture nation". On the chart of progress China is close to becoming the leading business country of the world as Congress continued to give tax breaks to American Corporations who contributed our factories and jobs to the Chinese economy. They gave away our critical infrastructure as I sit here using electricity supplied by National Grid, a British Corporation. There is a good possibility that I will soon be looking out at windmills built in Scandinavia assembled and operated by offshore companies using massive subsidies granted by a Republican Congress. In short, the economic and social problems along with the corruption and scandal of the past 7 years of the Bush Administration, encouraged or supported by the Republican Congress would take a lifetime to investigate and reverse. To say that, "Democrats are destroying America and they will not destroy Upstate NY!!!" is a bit of a simplification".

Anonymous said...

rwiley said... "Haliburton, blah, blah, blah. Democratic-controlled congress did nothing blah, blah, blah. Bush stole the 2000 election blah, blah, blah"

It's called drivel.

Anonymous said...

Gillbrand and Arcuri are in the Majority...of course Pelosi is going to fatten them up with election year PORK!!!

It's abuse when Republicans dole out money, but sound spending when Democrats do it right???

Hypocrisy knows no politics.

Anonymous said...

Nope, I'm all for pork, whoever's doling it out if it helps my community. That's why I support electing whoever is in the majority for our district, be it the 118th Assembly, the 122nd Assembly, the 48th State Senate, or the 23rd Congressional District, as it appears, the Democrats will be in charge of all three of those houses following this fall's election, electing Democrats means more pork for us, and that is good.

The question is why did McHugh do such a lousy job of bringing home the bacon over the course of the 12 years of Republican control?

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