TAP blog does a fairly good job with the an analytical piece on the 23rd Congressional district race.
Read: Where the race stand in the 23rd.
Here is the PIV short and sweet.
Scozzafava is a player in the race and she is moving forward, whether she can win or not is up in the air, she is likely an underdog. She will run without the Conservative line and likely the Working Families party will endorse a Democrat. The Draft Dede to run as a Democrat is a hoax, that too many intelligent people are biting on. One thing is certain, if she wins it will be short lived. Her residence of St. Lawrence is almost guaranteed to be redistricted into any area which will be very difficult for her to win.
Doheny is appealing not only for his ability to self finance the race, therefore he has the ability to get known to voters quickly and on his terms. As a native and resident of Alexandria Bay, he has a good story of hometown boy made good and a dream for others to do the same. He faces the same redistricting issues in 2012 as Scozzafava.
Barclay is appealing for a number of reasons. He is young, intelligent, good political skills and has the ability to stay around Congress long enough to gain seniority and play an important impact role. He would be a good representative for New York state. He also has the financial ability to run the race. And as far as redistricting, he is likely to be pushed in the Syracuse area where he would fare well in a showdown race.
Griffo, Taub, et al. whoever is the candidate they could use your assistance, but you are unlikely to be considered or more appropriately put embraced by the locals.
Your bench is not as deep, but you have proven to win by just playing your starters.
Aubertine is your best shot, plain and simple. Yet, he has proven to be ineffective in the New York State Senate where he cannot stop this Ag bill among other issues where he has been rolled by his downstate colleagues. He aspires to serve himself by being an opportunist for the next level, follow his moves closely now and compare those to his deliberate moves he made when the Senate seat opened, you will see a strong comparison. I will venture a guess here - Aubertine has already decided and organizations are being formed, while locals are being played for dumb.
And here is a Special Message to Drew Mangione who keeps blaming the ag bill on bipartisan support - here is your favorite term - red herring! YOU ARE IN THE MAJORITY - STOP THE BILL!
Dan French has an impressive background, but is it one that the common person in NNY can relate to? No, and the fact that he was involved in the Public Integrity mess and threatens to sue boaters on the St. Lawrence River (Can you see a "River runs through it" ad against French) because they drive by his elite waterfront mansion will not play well.
It will be a while before decision are made and there is time, which a day in politics can be an enternity, the scenario may change.
1 hour ago