TAP blog does a fairly good job with the an analytical piece on the 23rd Congressional district race.
Read: Where the race stand in the 23rd.
Here is the PIV short and sweet.
GOP:
Scozzafava is a player in the race and she is moving forward, whether she can win or not is up in the air, she is likely an underdog. She will run without the Conservative line and likely the Working Families party will endorse a Democrat. The Draft Dede to run as a Democrat is a hoax, that too many intelligent people are biting on. One thing is certain, if she wins it will be short lived. Her residence of St. Lawrence is almost guaranteed to be redistricted into any area which will be very difficult for her to win.
Doheny is appealing not only for his ability to self finance the race, therefore he has the ability to get known to voters quickly and on his terms. As a native and resident of Alexandria Bay, he has a good story of hometown boy made good and a dream for others to do the same. He faces the same redistricting issues in 2012 as Scozzafava.
Barclay is appealing for a number of reasons. He is young, intelligent, good political skills and has the ability to stay around Congress long enough to gain seniority and play an important impact role. He would be a good representative for New York state. He also has the financial ability to run the race. And as far as redistricting, he is likely to be pushed in the Syracuse area where he would fare well in a showdown race.
Griffo, Taub, et al. whoever is the candidate they could use your assistance, but you are unlikely to be considered or more appropriately put embraced by the locals.
Democrats:
Your bench is not as deep, but you have proven to win by just playing your starters.
Aubertine is your best shot, plain and simple. Yet, he has proven to be ineffective in the New York State Senate where he cannot stop this Ag bill among other issues where he has been rolled by his downstate colleagues. He aspires to serve himself by being an opportunist for the next level, follow his moves closely now and compare those to his deliberate moves he made when the Senate seat opened, you will see a strong comparison. I will venture a guess here - Aubertine has already decided and organizations are being formed, while locals are being played for dumb.
And here is a Special Message to Drew Mangione who keeps blaming the ag bill on bipartisan support - here is your favorite term - red herring! YOU ARE IN THE MAJORITY - STOP THE BILL!
Dan French has an impressive background, but is it one that the common person in NNY can relate to? No, and the fact that he was involved in the Public Integrity mess and threatens to sue boaters on the St. Lawrence River (Can you see a "River runs through it" ad against French) because they drive by his elite waterfront mansion will not play well.
It will be a while before decision are made and there is time, which a day in politics can be an enternity, the scenario may change.
"A government big enough to give you everything you want,
is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson
11 comments:
I saw a couple of the Barclay/Aubertine debates, and naturally I voted for the one I could relate to: Aubertine. I don't see the appeal of the French-"it's MY river!" -style of community participation, and I plain do not trust the instincts and motives of a scion of the law-firm approach to governance for the commoner. H&B promote the Empire Zone form of capitalism, i.e., smoke and mirrors. Unless WB has moderated his combative persona and matured a bit, I just do not see him as a viable candidate in the long run.
Liking someone and hoping that they will do a good job after they get into office is common practice.
We see it in practically every race around here, and we're about to see that happen again in this forthcoming "race."
Those in office all have records - and folks had better go back and review those records in great detail.
Moving up to Congress and taking a lousy local or state record is not justification for any promotion, IMHO.
As far as the county chairs picking the candidate, I think that sucks for many reasons too numerous to discuss in great detail here; but suffice it to say, it's a really bad system.
Why wouldn't DeDe comment on whether she was running as a Democrat on Friday's politickerny.com story? Is it because she is actually considering it?
Danny have you ever held an elected office? Why don't you run and get elected for a town council position or county leg position and prove yourself as an elected official? Instead you often bash all of our local leaders, and party leaders for not supporting you. Yes we have all heard over and over about your career in defense and admittedly it is very admirable. But show us your lawmaking abilities on a local scale before you expect us all to take a leap of faith and elect you to congress.
You make it sound so easy when you rag on Aubertine and other officials. But you have never been there, and there is no evidence thus far to the contrary you could do a better job.
You keep bringing up the farm labor bill. Why should farm workers be left without representation? Why do you insist on regarding them as second class citizens?
They should have the same protection as other industry. Your position is essentially that of the big, Farm Bureau large farm operator. If these large farms are truly better than the small family operated farm, they should treat their workers as every other industry does. The fact is the so called efficiency is built on exploiting their work force and the lack of meaningful environmental regulations.
Anon. 9:26: You raise a few good points, but if you reeally knew me, you'd also know more about me.
Like my 40 years of government service that cultivated a lot of knowledge and experiences across a very wide range of areas and issues all around the world.
Government service has always interested me and that's why I put so many years into it (USMC and DOD civilian equally) ...
It's easy to blast me for my views and opinions and that's fair, and I'm open game, and I can take it; but it should be on facts, issues and mu potential to serve in the future as I have in the past based on my proven record.
- I have a very distinguished and honorable public record, but to right now, it has not been highlighted except when I highlight it myself - that's the nature of being a DEM in this neck of the woods - a fact.
Yes, I am outspoken and aggressive on tough issues - I believe that's what progress involves and what accountability demands.
As for my party - I'm a lifelong DEM, but I AM NOT a rabid DEM nor one who walks the party plank with a blindfold on ...
That aspect rubs a lot of people the wrong way and why many in my own party DO NOT and will NOT support me. Those few are the hypocrites of my party, just as you have hypocrites in the GOP, too.
They say one thinng but practicing another. I'm not like that. I'm a team player, but more importantly, I am not a lackey or servile follower except on my terms. To me that's leadership and a strong principle the Marine Corps and my dad taught me a logn time ago. Being a party boss and controlling things is not necessarily being a good leader. I rub many of them, but in my view, that's their problem, not mine. Not to say I am always unreasonable -- I am very resonable and fair and honest, and for those who know me well, they know that is true.
In the past (1994 for example), there were GOPers for me (up on St. Law and Franklin counties to name two).
Get to know me better, and then fire away when necessary ... just don't forget those in office, too.
A bit long - sorry for that, but needed to be said.
~ dmf
9:26 and 9:35, thanks for posting! I agree w/you wholeheartedly...
Scozzafava cant raise enough money look at her assembly bank account right around 30k and then her family mess with Hacketts..Barclay can raise the money but cant win he was a pitiful against Aubertine..Doheny appears to be the best candidate he can raise alot of money beyond anyones belief great north country life story very intelligent etc
Events in the Senate today allow Aubertine to run for the 23rd. Better start the nasty attacks IV because I bet Aubertine will turn it on this summer.
You might be surprised. Aubertine serving us in Congress would be the lesser of two evils.
Aubertine doesnt even have a high school degree...common we're talking Congress!
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