"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Political Reality

You have heard it mentioned frequently that the GOP is going to throw the race in the 23rd Congressional district. It is not so much throwing the race, that will not happen, national GOP and Republican Congressional Campaign Committee will not let it happen, but here is political reality.

It is widely thought that New York is destine to lose two congressional seats after the next round of redistricting in 2012. Therefore, should a Republican win the 23rd Congressional seat and the Democrats regain control of the New York State Senate then this district is as good as gone. So is a Republican win really a win? It will be a short term venture at best.

Is Aubertine likely to be the next Congressman; sure, that is political reality. He made his move by being elected to the NYS Assembly over Patty Ritchie in a race where parochialism played a larger role than politics in Jefferson County and where ability was never a consideration. Parochialism over all other characteristics will carry the day again in the Congressional race, NNY will want to retain a Representative. Darrel Aubertine will not be the most qualified candidate by any stretch but, Northern New York will retain its Congressman. Aubertine has never been the most qualified to serve, he is not a leader nor a deep thinker, but he is a nice guy and his smile, demeanor and image have masked his weaknesses that is why he continues to win elections.

Of the likely Republican candidates in the field, Dede Scozzafava is capable of being our Representative and she could run and win, but only to be redistricted into newly elected Scott Murphy's 20th Congressional seat. The 20th seat needs more Democrats and they will be looking to expand that district north over the top of NY into St. Lawrence County.

Matt Doheny is also very capable of winning the election and serving as our Representative, only to face Mike Acuri from the 24th district in a runoff after redistricting. The 24th district surrounds Jefferson and Lewis Counties and we will likely end up there with Utica becoming the base of the district with a Republican win.

Will Barclay has the best chance of long term survival as a Congressman, but not as our Representative. Barclay is capable of winning and serving but he will be pushed into Dan Maffei's district, as they look to move Oswego into the 25th district. But then Barclay runs in his base area of Central New York and is capable of beating Maffei and retaining the seat. 

If Aubertine runs and wins, then the Republicans are likely favored to win the 48th Senate seat back. The Democrat's bench is not deep, Addie Russell or John Burns are not ready for the prime time of a Senate race or the responsibilities of the job. Therefore, the GOP is likely to retain their majority status in the NYS Senate which puts them at the table to decide redistricting and the continued balance of power in New York State.

Further, take the perspective of a freshman member of the House of Representatives. A Democrat such as Aubertine will simply be a pimple on the donkey's backside, having little effect on legislation or anything that effects our lives, while McHugh will be watching over our largest asset - Fort Drum. Aubertine will wander aimlessly through the halls of Congress into retirement. A freshman Republican Representative on the other hand will be given a telephone booth for an office, a tin can and string for a telephone and told not to sign a long term lease on an apartment, rent a hotel instead.

It is called political reality.

14 comments:

Earthbob said...

The state of things as they actually exist in the present day 23rd Congressional District is parochialism and provincialism.

Gone are the days when the Late Congressman Mc Ewen, the Cuomo Administration and Jim Merritt from the old Jefferson County Board of Supervisors cooperated, communicated and coordinated over the potential redeployment of the 2nd Division to Fort Drum.

Their efforts transcended political boundaries.

This is NOT to say Congressmen Martin and McHugh haven't done their part for issues like Fort Drum.

The provincialism in their districts have tarnished the polish of regional cooperation.

The local political races reflect the parochialism.

One example is when Democrat Aubertine was Leader of a Republican Board of Legislators in 1998.

Is it too late for regional cooperation?

Are there big ideas, like the Lake Placid 1980 Winter Olympics or "The Rooftop Highway" that can affect our Congressional District?

Only an aspiring Congressional Candidate can provide that idea and aspire to leadership.

I would encourage the 22 political county chairpeople from both parties in our Conressional District to find a candidate with those qualities.

Otherwise, the chairpeople will become the pall bearers in your fatalistic reality.

Dan Francis said...

IV: That’s a excellent run down with plenty of good points. Some are obvious, some debatable ... I'll save the debatable ones for the public in due time. I’d like to take some time here and reinforce one premise:

We absolutely do need the most-highly qualified person to step into John McHugh's shoes and represent this district in the House. And, especially on two critically important committees: (1) House Armed Services and (2) House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. John may end up running the Department of the Army, but Congress still funds programs for missions and stuff ... and in that regard, he and I would make a heluva good team.

Of all the “candidates mentioned to date and some not mentioned to date,” I believe that I am the only one highly qualified to sit on those two committees, and especially the HPSCI.

I was a Marine Corps intelligence officer and interrogator for nearly a dozen years (while on active duty and post-active duty service as a DOD civilian in Korea). I also have a strong war record, and one in the education field as an Army civilian for over 20 years in the education and Recruiting fields overseas, at Fort Drum and in Syracuse serving over one-half of NYS.

How my record is presented to the public for their examination and consideration is of course a huge PR challenge. I don't get much attention around here about my record, and I think it's for obvious reasons, based on my own assessment: I am a DEM in a huge GOP territory where a certain kind of media coverage is obvious, and I won't mention anyone in particular, and to many, I pose a threat. Why, I pose a threat, is beyond me. I also know that I am greatly misunderstood, and very often misquoted and spoken unfairly about because I am outspoken, opinionated and involved in a lot of issues. But, for me, I’d think that those would be strong qualities, not bad ones – but for some people, those things matter not. But, I know myself and I have to say simply “those folks are wrong bout me.”

Given the chance, I know the public wouldn't be disappointed to have me as their Rep. in the Halls of Congress. And, I guarantee everyone that I would be a heluva lot more than a “Junior Rep. from NYS.” I would be someone they could be proud of in DC standing up for them and their families and rights and futures. That’s my nature.

— dmf

Anonymous said...

iv you seem to be overlooking the impact of aubertine's vote for the bloated state budget. im sure that the gop will remind voters of the worst part of the budget. also david renzi come close to defeating aubertine last year; so it's not like congressman aubertine is inevitable. well unless of course you decide to run. ouch. i'm sorry that was harsh.

Dan Francis said...

Political Reality - Poll Time

Dan Francis for Congress

Take your best shot (unscientific poll, natch) and Anonymous vote casters are welcome (reluctantly) ...

~ dmf

Anonymous said...

Dan, I don't have any problem with your review except I don't understand your description of this area as a "huge GOP" region. What could you possibly be basing this on? Twenty or thirty years ago, sure. But we have changed a great deal. Most everyone around here works for government on some level, or depends on it for their "living". And the influx of Ft Drummers has shifted all kinds of numbers. This is old accepted wisdom that doesn't reflect much wisdom any more.

3:08 As far as voting for the state budget being a liability, one could only wish. As I said in the previous paragraph, most in this area love government. Whether we be welfare folk, teachers, government employees, or just smart people living off grants, we love spending money we don't have. The fact the Aubertine voted for this budget will not prove to be a problem for him in any way. People are stupid. Kids don't know any better, yet. They only know what their teachers and MTV tells them. And old folks are largely untouched. They will be dead soon so who cares what they think anyway. They won't vote much longer, unless they're registered through ACORN.

Nah, I like Darrell. And EB, it's not parochialism or prvincialism. I looked both those words up so I know what I'm talking about. The problem is us. We aren't too smart. We are getting what we deserve on all levels of government.

Anonymous said...

9:23 - what about the raid on SUNY tuition, cut in farm programs, repeal of star rebates, and sealing of drug dealers' records? those are all likely to be unpopular. that having been said i still think aubertine has at least a 50/50 chance of winning and will probably vote for him unless a rino like dede runs. i just don't like people declaring the winner before john mchugh has even been confirmed army secretary.

Earthbob said...

"Nah, I like Darrell. And EB, it's not parochialism or prvincialism. I looked both those words up so I know what I'm talking about. The problem is us."

Exactly.

Anonymous said...

Dan, ever the self-promoter, assumes that he gets to pick what House committees he is assigned to.

Sorry, newbie, but frosh reps don't get the first pick.

A narrow career background is the reason that he has never advanced beyond petition-circulator. It will relegate him to 'coulda, shoulda, woulda' status this time, too.

Anonymous said...

Dan Francis for Congress!

Dan Francis said...

Anon 7:53... that's your opinion, but in all honesty, you are being unfair to yourself and to me as well.

You don't know my abilities, but you act like you do.

Too bad you keep hiding behind an "Anon" moniker - come out and fight like a man. Or at least represent the truth from time-to-time.

~ dmf

Dan Francis said...

Anon 7:53 - one more note I meant to mention but didn't. You posted in part:

"Dan, ever the self-promoter, assumes that he gets to pick what House committees he is assigned to. Sorry, newbie, but frosh reps don't get the first pick."

Err... if I were to win, I'd be have a couple of firsts to hang my hat on:

1. First DEM from this district in over 100 years in the House.

2. First retired Marine Corps enlisted / and officer (was both during my career).

3. First former experienced and trained interrogator in a time of serious debate about detainee handling and questioning...

I would get those committees that Mr. McHugh now serves on - bet on that, and maybe Ag, too.

Don't underestimate me or my abilities, please.

~ dmf

Anonymous said...

EB, if you agree that the problem is us, then why did you have to use them big words? This is a workin' man's site. Just say it's our fault and be done with it.

I understand your points, 9:23, and they are good ones. But what matters to us is "show me the money". The dems did just that. Every special interest got what they wanted. Nobody paid the price for anything. And at a time when ALL agreed that taxes, specifically property taxes had to be addressed, the issue was ignored. With star elimination, it was actually raised significantly. That's what the dems did. They spent like fools at a time when we had to make changes. If that doesn't hurt Aubertine's chances nothing will. And trust me, it won't. Our teacher union, gov't employees, and other special interests own him, and them. He will ride free to the next level. No questions asked.

Dan Francis said...

WDT and Gorman today kinda "blast" Sen. Darrel:

Aubertine Must Do Better

That's the headline.

Misreadings? Misunderstanding? Miscommunications?

Whatever...

My reading is simpler: Lack of understanding; no understanding, poor or no communications, or worse inability to read the cards on the table.

Label it however you choose - it's not good governmment any way you cut it. It's poor representation by any measurement; or worse, incompetent representation by any standard.

That's my reading. The truth never hurts.

~ dmf

Anonymous said...

I don't read the WDT anymore. I picked one up (discarded) last week and was amazed at how far down it has gone in just the last six months.

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