"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

On the Verge

Jefferson County has tallied the results of their committee member’s vote and their choice for the candidate in the 23rd Congressional district race is Dede Scozzafava. This will make it an uphill battle for Matt Doheny to capture the nomination by the eleven county chairs when they are scheduled to meet tomorrow.

The larger picture is becoming a bit clearer with the possible stage being set for a match up between moderate Republican Dede Scozzafava versus blue dog Democrat Darrel Aubertine.

Dede will need to prove the GOP message has relevance for what ails people such as what was once said – it’s the economy stupid. While Aubertine will be left to defend the policies of the current administration such as; Cap and Trade, Health Care, stimulus II, etc., which are rapidly moving the country to the left. He will be forced to take a stand on that movement to the left by the Obama administration while support for the policies appears to be waning in the public’s opinion or heaven help Aubertine if he has to defend Nancy Pelosi.

If Dede is the candidate, there will be a lot of pressure on her to stop the hemorrhaging of the Republican Party, which was most recently on display in the 20th Congressional race. But, the dynamics have changed since that race when the Obama presidency was in its infancy stage and still very popular and the Republicans were staggering from the pounding they took in the November elections.

As well, Aubertine is associated with the recent Senate debacle, which has done nothing to improve any of their standing as legislators able to govern as illustrated in Monday’s Siena poll and add to that the electorate’s trepidation toward the big tax and spend government and the 23rd  Congressional district race will be a very different race.

43 comments:

Anonymous said...

I, like many people, like Dede A LOT! She is a great person, and she did get the short shrift by the GOP not running her against Aubertine for Senate.

Having said that, her business background is relevant, and it has a lot more to do with than just the economy. Her or her brother must have had dollar signs in their eyes to ever get involved with crooks like the Swartz family. Most anyone else would have had better judgement than to get involved with them. That, and her liberal views (gay marriage, gun control and abortion) make Matt the better candidate - and it breaks my heart to have to say that about her.

Anonymous said...

Dede is a liberal compared to Darrel. As much as people say abortion and gay marriage don't matter well they do. Furthermore both Darrel and Dede are part of the problem which is Albany, our dysfunctional government. Oh and don't forget Dede's share in Hackett's an their decline don't help matters.

Anonymous said...

Well, it looks like we will have another election with the same old tired politicians who have been completely ineffective at making any notable changes in our district to date. This was such a great opportunity to take a risk and try something or someone different. Especially since the redistricting is coming. Well, get ready for a bunch of speeches and ads where Dede and Aubertine promise great change for the area: new jobs, increased funding, etc...nevemind that neither of them have done much of anything to improve our district in all their comnibed years in office so far. Politics is the one job you can have where you can keep getting promoted despite total incompetence. Voters are always just too afraid of the 'new guy' so we just end up with more of the same. Oh well.

Anonymous said...

they can't very well dump a loyal DeDe for a downstate Wall St lawyer after all the downstate bashing that has gone on in the past few months. I know Doheny moved back here etc, but DeDe never left. And the conservatives who play the abortion card and those other games are blowing smoke. By the way, abortion used to be a states' rights issue, until Norma McCorvey pled her case. And she admitted she lied about being raped too.

Displaced Upstate GOPer said...

So who should republicans vote for? It looks like another lesser of two evils election...

Anonymous said...

That is so disappointing. You are right, we are just going to wind up with more of the same. What a wasted opportunity for the party. I no longer care about this election at all. I cannot stand behind Aubertine or Dede. Too bad. Well, at least Matt brought some new blood into the political scene for a little while. Thanks so much for your efforts Matt, but we just can't seem to get out of own way sometimes. Please think about 2010. If people up here get to know you there might be a different outcome. What a shame though.

Dan Francis said...

The worst kind of politics - happens all the time:

One side tries to define the other side while avoiding their own side.

To wit from above post in part:

* "... Aubertine will be left to defend the policies of the current administration such as; Cap and Trade, Health Care, stimulus II, etc., which are rapidly moving the country to the left."

"He will be forced to take a stand on that movement to the left by the Obama administration while support for the policies appears to be waning in the public’s opinion or heaven help Aubertine if he has to defend Nancy Pelosi."

* The "left" is not all that bad, just ask Dede - she feels comfortable standing there, voting there, all the while playing the "right" for all it's worth ...

She would be in a shrinking minority, too...

But, Darrel would be in the majority, just like in Albany...

Choices, choices, those darn choices!

There, how about those apples?

All joking aside, if that's possible.

This race absolutely should be about having someone with the proven abilities, sterling qualifications, and demonstrated experience to step into McHugh's shoes and serve on key committees.

Toot my own horn - that would be me, in all honesty.

~ dmf

Anonymous said...

Darrell will not run against DeDe. You will see an announcement that he is needed in Albany and will stay there to help the state.

He is afraid of DeDe.

Earthbob said...

Dan has named his horn Donald Trumpet.

Good luck to all of the candidates who are willing to go through this grueling process.

Given how much negativity abounds, all of your efforts are appreciated.

Anonymous said...

"One side tries to define the other side while ignoring their own side". Absolutely perfect. Smartest words ever spoken. My compliments.

I'm now supporting and voting for Dan Francis. We have to have some new ideas, some new outlook on things. How can any of us support people who have been right there in the middle of this NYS government fiasco?

Nothing personal against Dede or Darrel. We just HAVE to try something/someone different. I will not support an incumbent on any level in any election this fall.

Anonymous said...

Dede voted for this state budget.
Darrel voted for this state budget.

What the hell else do people have to know?

Anonymous said...

I agree she's part of the stench in Albany, so is AJR, there all nice people, but don't look for any changes anywhere, will Tom be her campaign manager?? Maybe some stimulus funds for Hackett's???

Dan Francis said...

Anonymous 6:51: You get first dibs as my campaign manager ... give me a call.

LOL

~ dmf

Mitch13601 said...

Dede voted AGAINST the staet budget with $8.5 billion in new taxes and a spending increase that's seven times the rate of inflation.

Darrel? he followed his NYC leaders and voted YES, never uttered a word in protest and condemned Upstate and, especially NNY, to another generation of economic malaise.

Anonymous said...

I can't believe people are sucked in by this rainmaker Doheny. Three months ago, nobody heard of the guy, and now he wants to be our congressman. Reminds me of the 'Captain Tuttle' episode on M*A*S*H. I'm not saying he isn't competent,but who knows anything about this guy? Run for mayor,council, trustee, etc first. Build up a record, and THEN run. In the mean time we have a proven candidate in Scozzafava. These people who cry about her 'liberal' tendencies need to be reminded that Bob Nortz, Dave Martin, Doug Barclay, Jim Wright, John McHugh, and probably Bob McEwen were all pro-choice. Why isn't that brought out now? I think the same people that sunk the Will Barclay and then the Dave Renzi campaigns need to sit this one out, lest come November we see a Congressman Darrel Aubertine (D) NY. (Unless thats what the powers that be want)

Dan Francis said...

Facts matter - Dede S. voted "No" on the 2009-2010 State budget.

Assembly Final Vote on A-00156: The 2009-2010 State Budget

She is at the bottom of the page.

Anonymous said...

Sounds like the Dems are seriously looking at McGrath. He is the semocratic version of Doheny, but they seem to be embracing his success and aren't holding his NYC employment against him. I hate to say this, but I am starting to get the impression that Democrats are smarter than Republicans these days. I fear we missed a huge opportunity with Doheny, it will be interesting to see if the Dems are smart enough to give McGrath a whirl instead of Aubertine. Thwy probably would have been afraid to put him toe to toe against Doheny, but now with Dede likely on the ticket, I would not be surprised if he is given a very close look.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Mitch and Dan and All. I thought Dede lined up with the rest of 'em. I was wrong.

I'm glad to hear that she didn't.

Anonymous said...

Where does Dede even stand on economic issues? Did she support stuff like the "stimulus" or the cap and trade tax bills McHugh supported?

Everyone knows she's pro gay marriage and abortion but no clue where she is on anything else...

Anonymous said...

Doheny would have given the Dem's a chance to bring out he is one of us vs. the rich guy in a mansion. Typical class warfare stuff.

Anonymous said...

If DeDe wins (by the way she introduced legislation to raise county taxes) Darrel will stay put in the Senate.

The Dems will put up someone else and that someone else will still win...

Then we will see DeDe lose to a nobody and Darrell keep the Senate. Awesome.

Anonymous said...

I won't vote for another RINO.
It looks like the Republicans want to lose the 23'rd District on purpose.

Earthbob said...

It is no longer a matter of "if" she wins...

Anonymous said...

Anyone think Dede is a sacrificial lamb here? Was there pressure from state republicans to nominate Dede with the unspoken, or maybe even spoken, hope that she would actually lose to Aubertine and thus the NYS senate seat would be cleared out for a republican. If the republican party as a whole thinks it is more important to move Aubertine out of the NYS senate, then they would likely push for Dede for the nomination over Doheny. The reason is this: Dede is going to need financial support from the republican party in order to win whereas Doheny doesn't - he can raise the money on his own. Essentially, with Dede on the ticket, the republican party has more control over the results. Thus, if the party decides to favor the NYS senate seat over the congressional seat, they can pull back on their support of Dede and as a reult, she will likely lose the congressional race and Aubertine will move from the Senate to Congress. If they pulled back their support with Doheny on the ticket, their reduced support wouldn't move the needle that much and Doheny could still win without them. With Dede on the ticket the republican party has the ability to greatly affect the outcome. It will be interesting to see which seat they value more.

Anonymous said...

If Reps pick DeDe
That lib can guarantee some
Other gets row D

Displaced Upstate GOPer said...

I could see how a conservative could support Lynch or Doheny...but Dede? Why in the world would I spend time, money, or effort trying to elect someone who doesn't hold my ideals? It's probably better just to support Darrel (who is just as conservative as Dede) and hope to get a conservative candidate next time around.

Anonymous said...

I agree- Aubertine will end up getting a lot of the conservative vote over Dede. Despite all of Aubertine's flaws, I think Dede is the worst candidate to put up against him. She has so many beliefs that are in line with the Dems, but I would be surprised if a lot of union supporting Dems cross party lines to vote for her. On the flip side, I think some conservative republicans may cross party lines for conservative Aubertine because the issues that are important to them are so personal and may outweigh party allegiances (or the voters will just stay home, disappointed with the 2 choices in front of them). I think Dede is toast.

Anonymous said...

Aubertine is actually more conservative than Dede - they should switch sides on the ticket.

Anonymous said...

I sure hope the 9 other counties have more good sense than Jefferson and St. Lawrence do...

God help us all.

Anonymous said...

Abortion isn't an issue controlled by Congress!!! Dede's views on this issue should not make a difference. And for all of you conservatives that have concerns Matt is Pro-choice also. The world is moving ahead without all of you conservative republicans and if you don't start to change you will become the 3rd party in politics.

Anonymous said...

You social conservatives who are thinking of flipping the lever for Darrel are completely missing the point: Abortion and gay marriage are not even on the radar for members of Congress. Abortion is a Supreme Court issue and Supreme Court justices are approved by the Senate. Gay marriage is a STATE issue.

How about discussing the candidates' stances on relevant NATIONAL issues like the economy, Iraq and Afghanistan, climate change and the like.

Anonymous said...

You are right - it isn't over yet, Doheny can still take it if the other counties are smart. Especially the one that might otherwise be voting for Maroun. I would think they would rather have Doheny on the ticket than Dede. Dede just can't win. She won't get the conservative vote, she won't get the union vote, she doesn't have a strong voter base. There are people who like her, but it won't be enough to take down the dems whereas I think Doheny could. We'll see what happens tonight.

Displaced Upstate GOPer said...

I simply think it's logical for conservatives to vote for Aubertine. In the short-term he's just as conservative so we aren't giving up anything. Longer-term a Dede victory makes it impossible for the GOP to nominate an actual conservative anytime in the near future. In a special election you have to turn out your base...

Anonymous said...

Don't ever think Darrel is conservative. Darrel will vote how he is told to by big Nancy period. He is all about Darrel look how he even backdoored NNY and the farming comunity.

Anonymous said...

Man, when the hell is Sandy Corey going to hang up her panty hose and get the hell out of the chairmanship?? Hasn't she done enough damage already? How does she make any decisions now that Jim Wright is gone?? Oh, that's right he's not gone, he's just gone underground (politically speaking) with a big fat paycheck and some more years in the state pension system. Guess we should feel sorry for the guy with all of the child support and alimony he probably has to shell out every month.

Anonymous said...

"...She won't get the conservative vote, she won't get the union vote, she doesn't have a strong voter base..." Just what kind of voter base does Doheny have. He's never even run for school board for cripes sake! He is a total unknown. Doesn't anyone see the danger in this? At least Scozzafava has a record to run on. Her vote against the awful state budget this year would contrast nicely with Darrel's lockstep vote for it. People shouldn't get distracted by these non issues like gay marriage and abortion. After all she wants to replace moderate John McHugh, not Jesse Helms. Hardly scientific, but I see she beat Aubertine on the mayor's blog, something Doheney could not do.

Anonymous said...

WE social conservatives have the advantage of actually standing for something. Dede the Dressed Up Democrat doesn't share any such convictions. Abortion and the issue of special rights for homosexuals is a constant issue before the US House in one form or another. I should hope that our representative would have the courage to vote--in holding with the values of the district--against spending OUR money promoting either of those things.

Anonymous said...

Doheny doesn't have the baggage of Dede. There are a lot of people out there who are anti-Dede. whether it is due to her ties to sketchy business dealings or her liberal views, it doesn't matter, they are still anti-Dede and will not vote for her. In fact, not only will they not vote for her, but they will vote against her, regardless of the opposing candidate. Matt, on the other hand, doesn't have any of that baggage. He is very smart on the economy and foreign policy, both of which will be big House issues in the forseeable future. as the initial poster stated, Dede is a very likeable candidate, she is just not an electable candidate, especially with the Democrats clawing at her. We already heard all about her "angry" presentation last Tuesday. If she can't handle a little pressure from some local county folks, she will likely crumble under the scrutiny of a national attack from the Democrats, who desperately want to gain control of one of the final republican positions left in the northeast.

Anonymous said...

Someone accurately pointed out that Doheny didn't stand a chance on the Mayor's Blog because the regular voters have not had a chance to hear from him yet, that was the problem with this pseudo-primary process. It is really unfortunate that non-elected officials are not only responsible for naming the candidate, but that they are the only ones privy to the candidate presentations. Rightly so, people are afraid to vote for the unknown, and right now, Doheny is an unknown to the average voter.

Anonymous said...

Doheny just conceded. It is over. We might as well just hand this historic seat over to the democrats now. Oh well.

Anonymous said...

And another Dem in office might be for the best. I'm ready for the Great One to get everything he wants. People will then deserve what they get.

Instead of dying slowly, let's do it fast. I say bring on socialized medicine, give the teacher union complete veto power over budgets, erase the second ammendment, establish a state run news agency, fully fund ACORN, and Capntrade your butts till you can't afford a burnt english muffin. Let's just get 'er done. That's where we're headed.

Why put ourselves through all this stress by putting off the inevitable? Dede or Darrel won't make a difference either way.

Anonymous said...

Screw it.........time to change from Republican to Conservative..............
Mike Long here we come.........
hopefully ALOT of us

Anonymous said...

Re county taxes: Darrel sponsored THREE such bills this year alone--more than a dozen throughout his brief Albany tenture--AND voted for $10 billion in higher taxes on everyone (miss those STAR rebate checks yet?)

Live Blogging