"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Friday, July 24, 2009

Why?

There is a lot of speculation on why Senator Darrel Aubertine abruptly chose not to run for Congress after weeks of people (who are in close at the Democratic Party) saying he was running.
  1. Family - at this point in his career why do it. He values is time at home and having to work Monday through Thursday in Washington and trying to travel 11 counties Friday through Sunday would be grueling; he would not be home much.
  2. His poll numbers are down (along with 61 other Senators), which would make this campaign an up hill battle. The NRCCC early release of an ad likely prompted a quicker decision by Aubertine in order to shut down the ad attacking his vote on this year's budget. The strategy worked.
  3. Negative ads were already running and this would make it his 3rd strenuous campaign in 19 months. In this case again the NRCCC strategy worked.
  4. Dede's poll numbers are good and show her beating Aubertine. He did not want to run a campaign against her, one in which undoubtedly he would be required to attack her. Once she was chosen his decision was easy.
  5. Threats from NYC bosses in the State Senate put him in a must win situation if he ran.
  6. (fill in the blank)
Add your thought!

Now the Democrats have to emerge from the back room and get bogged down with some silly open process. (insert sarcasm)  like the one the Republicans went through. Clearly they were caught off guard by this decision.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

My first response to this post was to just laugh. But I am sure you would not have posted it.

One thing that you are wrong about is that Darrel's decision was not ABRUPT. You guys got suckered again. Darrel put the "might run" message out there to the people who would squeak knowing how gullible you all are. In the meantime those close who understand the Senator were watching him work hard in Albany, were confident that he would not pull a Jim Wright and abandon us and were laughing at Republican confusion. But all long as you thought the way you thought and carried the hatred you carried you wandered in the dark chasing the wrong messages and maintained your consistent failure. As long as you keep floundering, Dems will do well in the 23.

FlatsFarmer said...

You spend too much time putting politics before people. Why? Is no longer significant except perhaps at Pete's while crying in your beers.

Political IV said...

Oh if you think it was not an abrupt decision, read the comments from June O'Neill and others in this morning's paper.

Nice attempt to cover though.

Anonymous said...

I hope they bring on that French guy. Hillary's lawyer. The guy with the mansion on the St Lawrence that didn't want anyone driving by. He's one of us.

Anonymous said...

Spot on, PIV. The nats scared Darrel off, spending very little (what TV commercials? I saw them on the web, not Ch. 7!), but clearly hitting a message that resonated with voters.

The Albany mess IS Darrel's fault, just like the weak economy, lack of stimulus funding, repeated "misunderstandings," toeing his downstate boss's line to accept higher taxes and spending, then bringing home only crumbs for us.

The entire episode bodes poorly for Aubertine in next year's Senate race, IMHO.

Anonymous said...

If he were to lose to Dede it would have been very negative towards his re election for the 48th next fall.

Anonymous said...

How about the thought that he can have greater impact on NNY as Senate Energy and Ag Chair than he can as freshman congressman -- where it would take him a decade to get on a commte like ag, energy or armed services.

Anonymous said...

"Nice attempt to cover though."

Read what I said again, "Darrel put the "might run" message out there to the people who would squeak knowing how gullible you all are."

Like I said you got suckered and you always will be.

Anonymous said...

If the dems take more heat for the State Senate fiasco than the republicans then he will be in the minority and according to the "rules" in Albany - he won't get squat.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 1201: Yeah, like we're all gonna buy that Senator Dum Dum actually thinks three moves ahead....he can't even do a farm commercial without store bought straw bails instead of hay!

Anonymous said...

He didn't run so DeDe would, extra cash for her so she can off the tax leins.

Canmandan said...

Aubertine's decision does not surprise me. The party bosses in Albany call the shots for him. They recognize that in 2010 the NYS Senate seat is strategically far more important than the Congressional Seat. That is because 2010 is a census year and if they can manage to maintain control of both the Assembly and Senate they can gerrymander every district in NYS unchallenged.

Bad news though - Aubertine may not know it but he is in trouble. if you get out and talk to people (and i do) you will find that there are a lot of people out there that are sorry they voted for him and won't make the same mistake again. for one hint as to why, just compare what the north country got in the budget to the big NYC got and you will see that Aubertine looked the other way and let the big bucks go to those crooks in NYC.

Anonymous said...

12:56 you are a moron with no clue.

IV you are lieing about Dede polling higher, you never saw a poll. In fact Darrel polled higher than Dede in 2 consecutive polls taken since Mchughs appointment. He held a considerable lead but there was a high undecided percentage. The reason he led Dede had nothing to do with politics, but the fact his name recognition was much higher than hers throughout the district at this point. IV dont just make $h!t up, it makes you look like a liar. You aren't a liar are u?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 1256: I bet that Darrel can spell BALE correctly.

Anonymous said...

easy.........he's scared of tall women

Anonymous said...

IV you just were called out today, did you lie about the poll?

Political IV said...

did you lie about the poll?

No, not at all

Anonymous said...

Yes you did.

Live Blogging