"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Is Oot In The Race For Congress??

The Cook Political Report is an extensive political website covering the Presidential race as well as Senate, House and Governor races. The Cook Report has a list of competitive House races and list them as leaning Democrat or Republican, likely Democrat or Republican and Toss Up Democrat or Republican.The analysis was done on "competitive" races and reviewing the chart, the 23rd Congressional District seat  currently held by John McHugh is not considered a competitive race.Does Michael Oot or Danny Francis know they are not considered competitive by Cook? P IV apologizes if this made an otherwise beautiful weekend gloomy for Danger Democrat.

Whether or not the Cook Report considers this competitive or not, John McHugh will.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC LEAN DEMOCRATIC DEMOCRATIC TOSS UP

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
CT-5 Christopher Murphy D+4
GA-12 John Barrow D+2
IL-8 Melissa Bean R+5
IN-8 Brad Ellsworth R+9
KS-3 Dennis Moore R+4
MN-1 Tim Walz R+1
NH-2 Paul Hodes D+3
NY-19 John Hall R+1
NY-24 Michael Arcuri R+1
OH-18 Zack Space R+6
PA-7 Joe Sestak D+4
PA-8 Patrick Murphy D+3
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski D+5
TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez R+4
14 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AZ-5 Harry Mitchell R+4
AZ-8 Gabrielle Giffords R+1
FL-16 Tim Mahoney R+2
GA-8 Jim Marshall R+8
IL-11 OPEN (Weller) R+1
IL-14 Bill Foster R+5
IN-9 Baron Hill R+7
KY-3 John Yarmuth D+2
NH-1 Carol Shea-Porter R+0
NY-13 OPEN (Fossella) D+1
NY-20 Kirsten Gillibrand R+3
NY-25 OPEN (Walsh) D+3
OR-5 OPEN (Hooley) D+1
PA-4 Jason Altmire R+3
VA-11 OPEN (Davis) R+1
WI-8 Steve Kagen R+4
12 DEMOCRATS
4 REPUBLICANS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-5 OPEN (Cramer) R+6
CA-11 Jerry McNerney R+3
KS-2 Nancy Boyda R+7
LA-6 Don Cazayoux R+7
MS-1 Travis Childers R+10
PA-10 Chris Carney R+8
TX-22 Nick Lampson R+15
7 DEMOCRATS
0 REPUBLICANS
REPUBLICAN TOSS UP LEAN REPUBLICAN LIKELY REPUBLICAN

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AK-AL Don Young R+14
AZ-1 OPEN (Renzi) R+2
CO-4 Marilyn Musgrave R+9
CT-4 Christopher Shays D+5
IL-10 Mark Kirk D+4
LA-4 OPEN (McCrery) R+7
MI-7 Tim Walberg R+2
MN-3 OPEN (Ramstad) R+1
NJ-3 OPEN (Saxton) D+3
NJ-7 OPEN (Ferguson) R+1
NM-1 OPEN (Wilson) D+2
NY-26 OPEN (Reynolds) R+3
NY-29 Randy Kuhl R+5
NC-8 Robin Hayes R+3
OH-1 Steve Chabot R+1
OH-15 OPEN (Pryce) R+1
OH-16 OPEN (Regula) R+4
WA-8 Dave Reichert D+2
18 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-2 OPEN (Everett) R+13
FL-8 Ric Keller R+3
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart R+6
FL-24 Tom Feeney R+3
MI-9 Joe Knollenberg R+0
MO-6 Sam Graves R+5
NV-3 Jon Porter D+1
NM-2 OPEN (Pearce) R+6
PA-3 Phil English R+2
VA-2 Thelma Drake R+6
WV-2 Shelley Moore Capito R+5
11 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

DIST. REPRESENTATIVE PVI
AL-3 Mike Rogers R+4
AZ-3 John Shadegg R+6
CA-4 OPEN (Doolittle) R+11
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher R+6
CA-50 Brian Bilbray R+5
FL-9 Gus Bilirakis R+4
FL-13 Vern Buchanan R+4
FL-15 OPEN (Weldon) R+4
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen R+4
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart R+4
ID-1 Bill Sali R+19
IL-6 Peter Roskam R+3
IL-18 OPEN (LaHood) R+5
IN-3 Mark Souder R+16
IA-4 Tom Latham D+0
KY-2 OPEN (Lewis) R+13
MD-1 OPEN (Gilchrest) R+10
MN-2 John Kline R+3
MN-6 Michele Bachmann R+5
MO-9 OPEN (Hulshof) R+7
NE-2 Lee Terry R+9
NV-2 Dean Heller R+8
NJ-5 Scott Garrett R+4
NC-10 Patrick McHenry R+15
OH-2 Jean Schmidt R+13
OH-7 OPEN (Hobson) R+6
PA-5 OPEN (Peterson) R+10
PA-6 Jim Gerlach D+2
PA-15 Charlie Dent D+2
PA-18 Tim Murphy R+2
TX-7 John Culberson R+16
TX-10 Michael McCaul R+13
VA-5 Virgil Goode R+6
VA-10 Frank Wolf R+5
WY-AL OPEN (Cubin) R+19
35 REPUBLICANS
0 DEMOCRATS

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

You need a job, man. Or, at least one that doesn't give you so much free time in between arranging bouuquets to anonymously attack others.

Anonymous said...

I guess we should just anoint McHugh Senator for life then.

RWiley said...

As a Congressman, John McHugh is insignificant. However, he is "pretty" and they feel that his District is not important enough to target. But, lucky for us, we have two strong Democratic Senators who at this time have an interest in keeping the Drum going. However, that is fragile. And, if suddenly, they decide to pull the plug on the drum, then they will always have McHugh around to blame.

The good news is that with the upcoming campaign, a few people here in the North might get to see their Congressman as he blesses us with a rare visit.

Anonymous said...

Rwiley,

It is good that you acknowledge your party's purpose in life and that is to blame others, in this case you prepare to blame McHugh if Drum falters, but it happens frequently in other cases.

Have you ever run or held office? You would know it is difficult to get around a State Senate district or even an Assembly district let alone a large Congressional district like the 23rd. Considering Congress is in session most of the time also, with only brief breaks around holidays and the month of the August.

RWiley said...

Congress by the Numbers

Anonymous said...

Wiley

You are correct with that chart now figure it out. 1478 Hours out of 2080 work hours in a year (if you do not think he ought to be allow a vacation) that leaves him 602 hours for travel to and from Washington and the time it takes to visit 11 counties considering parts of his district are 3 hours from his home. Probably about 3 perhaps 4 days per year in each county per year is about right.

You're right you would have to be in the right place at the right time to see him with that busy schedule.

Thanks for providing that chart it makes me understand how busy he is and when he is meeting with people on a Saturday I will have a great deal of appreciation for his time.

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm, odd that Kristin Gillibrand can make it to Lake Placid at least a couple times a year. I guess old John McHugh must work hard cuz it's hard work in politics, so he's workin real hard.

RWiley said...

I assume you mean rwiley, anon:

John has had at least six vacations on the Government dime as he toured the mid-east, all expenses paid. He still has no excuse for not visiting his constituency other than he feels it is secure and not necessary to his election.

With a half-year of vacation, I still think he should have time to visit on occasion.

Anonymous said...

To defend any politician for not visiting the people who put him or her in office is silly and stupid. John McHugh sees no advantage to coming up here because we only give him about 8% of his campaign funds. His idea of working is eating steak with a lobby member.

Anonymous said...

Democrats have a difficult time with math.

"Kristin Gillibrand can make it to Lake Placid at least a couple times a year."

vs.

"Probably about 3 perhaps 4 days per year in each county per year is about right."

I think 3 or 4 days is greater than a couple!

Com'on Wiley even you can recognize the math here, right?

RWiley said...

Republicans have a difficult time with spelling. But, again I assume you mean rwiley. So here, I will do the math for you:


In 2006 the house was in session 101 days.

There are 365 days in a year.

365 days per years - 101 days in session = 264 days available for John McHugh to visit his constituents; 5th. grade math.

Considering that he could make more than one visit per day it seems that more than a few per year is possible.

John McHugh does not even attend major party functions. That must be demoralizing for your party.

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