"A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have"
Thomas Jefferson

Sunday, November 2, 2008

So Close, Yet So Far Away

The Presidential election is so close, next Tuesday, yet the polls are so far away from each other that it can make your head spin.

Zogby: McCain up 1
Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error… McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…

Gallup: Obama by 10
Barack Obama leads John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviewing conducted Wednesday through Friday by an identical 52% to 42% margin among both traditional likely voters and expanded likely voters. Obama leads by a similar 52% to 41% margin among all registered voters.

Rasmussen: Obama by 5
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 46%. The race continues to remain remarkably stable at the national level--this is the 37th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52% (see trends).


Anonymous said...

No need to get your hopes up IV.
When the pollsters call, only McSame supporters are home mopping about, not using the phone.
All the Obama supporters are phoning friends reminding them to vote or else at Obama rallies and ringing doorbells.
Most are out of the house voting early for Obama, standing in huge lines for hours at a time.
Yes we can.

hermit thrush said...

i don't think it should "make your head spin" at all. at this stage in the election, there are a large number of polls coming out every day, and the basic laws of statistics say that we should expect to see a fair amount of variability; pollster.com has a nice discussion of this in their morning status update for today, for example. the best bet is to focus on what the various polls, in aggregate, are consistently telling us. and that, i'm sorry to say to my friends on the right, is that this isn't a close race. obama has a consistent national lead of about 5-7 points, and he has similarly consistent leads in enough battleground states that he should clear 300 electoral votes (perhaps by a lot).

of course, the polls may be totally wrong -- mccain really may still win, or obama may only eke out a narrow victory. but to argue that this is a close race is to argue that the polls are meaningless.

it's also quite notable that iv couldn't be bothered to link to that famous zogby 1-day sample, even though s/he linked to gallup and rasmussen. might that be because zogby's more robust 3-day samples are much more favorable to obama? today's 3-day zogby average has obama up 49.5-43.8, with obama scoring a 10-point advantage in yesterday's polling. betcha won't see that on iv's front page.

Anonymous said...

Here's the rub for the Obama camp. While they may have registered record numbers of voters on the Democratic side, it remains to be seen if all these people will actually get off their ass and vote. The fact that the media has this as a slam-dunk for Obama, might just keep some of those people home. One can only hope. Seriously, I am concerned about this country if Obama wins. We will be in deep doo-doo. Hell, even Biden said stated that he thought B.O. would be 'tested' early on. Great!

I don't buy into any of these polls.

BTW-Anyone else wondering why the WDT's endorsed Obama....Insane!

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